Notes on the Front

The Taoiseach says he wants a US-style tax system. What does he think we have already? Here’s what the EU Ameco database tells us. Ireland data from 2015 comes from the Government’s own budgetary projections.

Ireland already has a US-style taxation system – if we use general government revenue as the benchmark. Before the crash Ireland was awash with revenue from the speculative boom; revenue that quickly evaporated. Since then, Irish government revenue has been steadily falling. By 2017:

• The Government projects revenue will be below 32 percent of GDP. When we factor in multi-national accountancy practices, this figure rises to 34.5 percent

• Ameco projects that US revenue will be 34 percent

• Ameco also projects that Eurozone revenue will be over 46 percent.

A few things stand out in this. First, we are already at low US low-levels of taxation. Second, we are certainly not at European norms. We’d have to raise taxation by a mind-boggling €26 billion to reach the Eurozone average. Even with the demographic benefit of having fewer elderly (which is substantially negated by a higher level of young people) we’d have to increase taxation massively.

Third, the Government projections foresee revenue falling even further out to 2021 when it will be below 34 percent.

And here’s the kicker: this doesn’t factor in tax cuts that a future government may introduce. For instance, Fine Gael wants to abolish USC. That will drive tax revenue down further, potentially falling behind US levels.

When measured as a percentage of GDP, Ireland is at the bottom of EU tables – fighting it out with Romania and Latvia for the rock bottom prize. Nods towards quality health and education services, childcare and eldercare, public transport, pensions and incomes supports are made, but these are little more than nods; perfunctory gestures in a debate that effectively excludes the social.

What the Taoiseach really wants is for Ireland to be a basement-without-a-bargain economy where public resources are squeezed, investment is starved, and the energy bulb frequently cuts out without any window to let in the light.