Notes on the Front

One can sympathise with John Gormley’s despair at the prospect of five more years of opposition, especially coming from someone of his political calibre. But coalition-forming and political alignments are about something more than individual skill. Good progress has been made in discussions between the Greens and Fianna Fail according to the Irish Times. Certainly, the Greens are pursuing these negotiations in a serious and competent manner. All that being said, from the perspective of progressive politics, it can only be hoped they don’t enter Government with Fianna Fail.

There are three aspects to this issue. First is the issue of compatibility. As to environmental issues, there are others who can better analyse this area. Certainly on the issue of taxation and expenditure there would be few problems. Both parties campaigned for substantial cuts in PRSI and the Greens’ promise to cut government expenditure will dovetail nicely into Fianna Fail’s low-tax, low-spend conservatism. (On this point I am mystified at the Green’s pledge of cutting expenditure to 33% of GDP – which in 2006 terms would mean slashing the public budget by over a €1billion – especially as members that I know value social solidarity. Are Green Party members aware of the full implications of this proposal?)

On a general level, however, there is no problem with compatibility and this is not just a matter of Greens vis-à-vis Fianna Fail. Given the coalition promiscuity practiced by all parties, it is clear that if parties want to make a deal they will make a deal: 

• Employ aspirations that are so commonplace no one would disagree. Example: efficient public services. Well, who wants inefficient public services?
• Advance assertions that sound specific but, on closer examination, aren’t. Example: ‘A properly funded education system.’ Again, who supports an improperly funded system?
• Agree policies that are easily implemented and uncontentious. This gives the veneer of a positive negotiated outcome.
• Where there is a disagreement, fudge. That’s why working parties were invented.
• When all else fails, subject everything to a financial formula: ‘in keeping with sound fiscal policies’, ‘consistent with economic growth,’ etc. This is a great postponer of difficult decisions.

Experienced negotiators can do all this before they sit down for breakfast. So if the Greens and Fianna Fail possess the will (or indeed, any permutation of parties) – there are many ways.

Having negotiated these hurdles, there are more problematic issues for the Greens. While maintaining an ‘independent’ stance, the fact is they campaigned on the basis of removing Fianna Fail from office and joining with Fine Gael and Labour if the opportunity arose. Trevor Sergeant, TD went so far as to state unequivocally that he would step down as Leader in the eventuality of the Greens entering with Fianna Fail. No matter how that is spun, the electorate was certainly of that opinion. An analysis of transfers in the sixteen constituencies where Fianna Fail and Opposition candidates were still in the running, Green voters transferred a mere 11% to Fianna Fail, while 37% opted for Labour and 26% for Fine Gael (a combined 63% for an alternative government). With a near volte face, the Greens may have trouble convincing their own voters of the benefits of coalescing with a party that so many transferred against.

History is littered with the remains of small parties that coalesced with larger parties: Clann na Poblachta was obliterated in 1951; Democratic Left went out of existence shortly after its brief coalition participation. Labour has been continually battered – in 1987 its vote fell by a third while in 1997 it was nearly halved. Even the PDs – they entered Government in 1997 with 4 seats, doubling that number to 8 before collapsing to two with all the questions regarding their long-term viability that entails.

Of course, each of these debacles had their own particular dynamics so to suggest that it’s simply a matter of small vs. big is a bit simplistic. Still, this history should be given serious consideration.

For the Greens, this could be compounded by their current circumstances. Contrast it with Labour in 1992 entering coalition with Fianna Fail. Labour was on a high of 33 seats, more than doubling their Dail representation and entered into a pact that was heralded as truly ground-breaking. It helped that Fianna Fail was rather chastened, having lost 9 seats. By contrast, the Greens are nowhere near that situation and they are hardly dealing with a chastened Fianna Fail.

The Greens nationally polled 4.7%, increasing by less than 1%. In addition to losing Dan Boyle, many of their sitting TDs are in precarious situation. Gormley himself saw his vote fall by over 2% points, scraping into the last seat by 300 votes. Ciaran Cuffe’s vote also fell, surviving on a massive transfer from Fine Gael on the last count. Indeed, of the constituencies they contested in 2002, the Green vote increased by a fractional 0.2%. 

For me, however, the overriding consideration to all this is the inestimable loss to progressive politics resulting in coalition with Fianna Fail. We will see progressives divided between Government and Opposition, once again postponing the day when anti-conservative forces can present a united front against the duopoly of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. And politics being politics, there is no doubting that Labour will put the Greens through the parliamentary wringer, in an attempt to win their votes, in the process undermining their seats. This is not a prospect to savour no matter what party allegiance we may hold.

More importantly, in pursuit of building a third progressive block in Irish politics, we will be missing out on the values and insight the Greens could bring to this new project. Instead, they will be fighting to hold what they have, fending off Opposition attacks on many policies which the Greens will reluctantly have to defend.

Maybe I’m misreading all this. Clearly, if the Green negotiators walk out of the talks, stating that they could not ‘reform’ Fianna Fail’s conservative habits, many kudos could result. No one could question the Greens’ integrity or the seriousness with which they applied themselves to the task. And their experience, brief as it may have been, can be drawn upon in many other ways to much better effect. Even if the negotiators are rebuffed at the upcoming Mansion House convention, with the membership refusing to endorse the move into Government, this, too would show a maturity (never mind an unprecedented and refreshing display of democracy) that could be used to show the electorate this is a different kind of party.

However it plays out, hopefully the Greens will show they are ready and willing to play a part in Government. Having proven this, hopefully they won’t do it. Not this time. Not with conservative forces. In response to John Gormley’s lament about another five years of opposition I would suggest this: use those five years to build a real alternative – one in which the Greens won’t be an ‘added-on to make up the numbers’ but rather one in which they will be an integral and indispensable part.

Those would be good years.