Notes on the Front

Commentary on Irish Political Economy by Michael Taft, researcher for SIPTU

Dumb and Lazy

Hard20work There are some who believe the reason why wealthy people are wealthy is because they’re smarter and work harder. The corollary is that the poor are not so smart and are lazier. And for those in the middle – smarter than the poor but lazier than the rich or some such variant. Not many are so explicit but it is certainly arguable that this attitude is implicit in many political and social observations.

The CSO has been tracking the income earnings of the population in ways that we can now reliable make year-on-year comparisons. Examining the figures under ‘Direct Income’ between 2003 and 2005 (direct income refers to ‘earning power’: how much people make in the red-in-tooth-and-claw market place – PAYE, self-employed and capital income) gives us the following for households:

  • Upper income groups (the top 30%) saw their income rise by €226 per week, or 15.4%.
  • Lower Income groups (the bottom 30%) saw their direct income rise by €3 per week.

This shouldn’t be too surprising. We all know the gap between the rich and poor is high by EU standards and is growing. In particular, the lowest income groups contain a disproportionate number of pensioners, unemployed, disabled, lone parents out of work, etc.

But what about the middle 40% income group – how did they fare? Well, their direct income actually fell by €11 per week. That’s right – it declined by 2.2% in the two-year period. If you want to really get wonkish over the numbers, in real terms (i.e. after inflation), the middle-income group suffered a drop of over 6%.

So what’s the story? Are these middle-earners getting dumber, lazier? Why the drop in the earning power of a significant proportion of the population? There is no single reason. It could be as a result of increased out-sourcing, enforced self-employment, causalisation, reduced working hours, increasing under-employment, or more temporary absences from the labour force. It could be the downward pressure on wages and salaries in the name of competitiveness and profit. Whatever the reasons – which surely deserve more investigation by policy makers – the short-term indicators are that whole swathes of the population are falling back in terms of earnings.

So does that mean that middle-income earners have seen their living standards cut?  Not necessarily. Credit is a likely source for boosting living standards – the house extension, the new or first car, furniture, holidays. But of course there is a limit to this and there will be a payback.

Another saving factor is the welfare state itself. When we factor in ‘Social Transfers’ (e.g. social welfare payments, Child Benefit and other family-related allowances, housing allowances, etc.) we find that the middle-income groups found their total income increasing by €40 or 6%. In real terms, it meant they kept ahead, but only slightly: 1.1% over the two-year period. Not much, but without the increase in social transfers they would have been much worse off – social transfers made up 30% of middle-income earners total income.

That the rich really do get richer is not much of a surprise. Not is the fact that the gap between the rich and the poor is increasing. In earning power

  • The gap between upper income and lower income groups grew by 6.6%.
  • Between the upper and middle-income group it grew by 17%.
  • On the other hand, the gap between the poorest and middle-income groups actually closed slightly.

Applying the dumb and lazy school of economics, the majority of us must, ergo, be getting a little bit thicker while a minority are working all that much harder (or some such variant).  And it looks to get worse.

For the frightening thing is that, when measuring earning power, the top 30% took almost the entire increase in the economy between 2003 and 2005.

A lot of us will have to set our alarms earlier.  Much earlier.

8 responses to “Dumb and Lazy”

  1. david Avatar

    Hilarious straw man you pulled out of the bag today. The reasonable conservative assumption which you are apparently slagging off is that, all other things being equal, smart people and people who work hard tend to earn more than others. I think it says a lot about the nature of your ideology that you’d try to discredit such basic common sense. You sound like you have a problem not just with the reality of inherent advantages in our personal characteristics but with anyone choosing to work harder than anyone else.
    And I think it says even more that you use those statistics as if they were even remotely adequate to proving something relevant to the debate. Anyone familiar with basic statistical methodology would be trying to strip out the irrelevant factors in the study if they were honestly trying to disprove the claim that “being smart increases your expected income” in a scientific way. But it doesn’t look like you were honestly trying to do this; instead you attacked some straw variation in a half-assed way and left it at that.
    I envy your position of being able to spend all day coming up with arguments to suit your paymasters. On the other hand, your policies would send this country to hell. You need to get used to the fact that socialism failed, and move on.

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  2. Michael Avatar

    Then help me out, David. How do you explain the CSO reports that show that middle income groups’ direct income is actually declining?

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  3. Lorenzo Avatar

    You say that a significant proportion of the population is worse off now than two years previously in terms of earning power. This is a striking finding but one at odds with reports on employment earnings for the period.
    How can there be this disparity? The core of it is that the income figures you use are for households and not individuals.
    The direct earnings of a household is based on the number of people working and their level of earnings. Richer households have more people living in them (to the extent that the middle 40% of the population you are concerned with actually occupy (roughly) the 5th to 8th deciles of household income and not the 4th to 7th deciles, though I have used the same deciles as you for my
    figures). If earnings have increased and yet household earnings have reduced then it is the number of workers in the household that must have changed. Looking at the figures this is exactly what happened – the number of workers per middle household reduced from 1.23 to 1.16 over the period (over 5% less workers per household). This explains the drop in household income, even though direct income per worker has increased for the middle group over the period, though not by a lot. Changes in household size and nature alter the composition of the income deciles. Drawing conclusions on changes in these deciles over time is
    interesting but liable to be inaccurate.
    On average wealthier households have more people working in them – the top 30% of households have 2.1 people working as opposed to the middle 40% only having 1.16, in 2005. (In this sense, at very least, wealthy people work more).
    On that point of why the wealthy are wealthy – and I assume you are using a kind of rhetorical ploy for sake of your argument -but are you really suggesting there is no link between effort & talent and reward?
    I have never heard anyone claim that the wealthy are wealthy purely due to their working harder and being more intelligent. It is almost too obvious to point out that some people inherit their wealth or win it or are in some other way lucky. Similarly some people are poorer due to misfortune, ill-health, circumstances or indeed personal choice.
    It is my personal experience that on average the smarter and harder working within a particular field do earn more. This is hardly surprising – for it to be any other way would be shocking. Does it explain all income disparity? No but I would guess it explains a good chunk of it. The flip side of this – that there are some people who are poorer because they are not so smart or hardworking – may be unpalatable but no less true because of it.

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  4. Niall Avatar

    The basic premise of Michael’s argument is that income does not relate to work, rather to those who have the power to control income.
    There are natural ebbs and flows in household income which varies substantially over a lifetime and this is natural. However it is clear that much of the recent gains have accrued to a comparatively small number of people. Among those who have gained include a rentier class of property owners, who can increase rents as part of rent reviews, though they have done nothing to improve the business of their tenants. Much of the control over business properties is in the hands of a very small number of well connected people.
    Another group who clearly have benefitted are certain segments of the public sector. The gross value of their pay and pension rights have grown hugely.
    However there are other issues, access to education being a major one. The drift towards to private second level education over the past twenty years is damaging the whole structure of education. In the past ten years I have been on the boards of management of three different schools at both primary and post primary levels and can see a huge change with many of those who can afford to do so opting out. The failure to stop the huge subsidies to these private schools, e.g. teachers’ salaries, huge capital grants and tax free charitable status has ensured the expansion of these schools. Much of the blame goes back to the time of the Labour Party’s Niamh Bhreathanch and her unplanned removal of 3rd level fees.
    Those who have fallen behind are generally less qualified, working part-time and as Lorenzo correctly points out in households with fewer members participating in the economy. Yet Irish participation in the Irish economy is very low. Take out foreign participation and we have a native participation rate of around 60%. This compares to Scandanavian rates of over 70%/

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  5. Michael Avatar

    Whatever about me getting smarter, Lorenzo, you certainly are ensuring that I get up earlier to respond to your comments. Well spotted on the at-work figures. But, while they make some marginal changes, it still only confirms the point I made in the post.
    Yes, the figures I used are for households. Household income is influenced to some degree by the number of people in it and is only a partial measure. The CSO has produced equivalised income figures for 2005 which is a read on per individual (though not necessarily at work – they include children, students, retired, carers, etc). Unfortunately, they do not have this data for 2003/04 so I can’t make a comparison. Even this figure only gives us a partial read as I mentioned. The better picture – when we have the data from both over the same period of time – is to try and merge the two.
    The specific point you made is that the average number of workers between 2003 and 2005 dropped in the middle income group – from 1.23 to 1.16 working persons per household. Yes. But even incorportng that doesn’t give much solace to the hard-working middle income group.
    Factoring in the at-work composition within the households on a decile basis shows that between 2003 and 2005 weekly income for those in the middle increased by €13 in nominal terms or 3.1%. Those in the upper income groups saw their income rise by nearly €100 or 14%.
    When we take into account into account inflation (real increases in the real world) we find that the middle income still lost out – dropping €7 in real terms or close to – 2%. And the upper income groups? They seem to weather the real world better – seeing their real incomes increase by 9%.
    Even using the at-work composition still doesn’t explain all. For instance, between 2004 and 2005, the decline in at-work was fractional. Yet the middle income still managed to lose in both nominal and real terms. Yet, when upper income groups suffered the same marginal decline, their incomes still increased each way.
    So, taking account of the in-house composition figures only confirms my point: that middle income groups are losing ground in the market-place and their living standards are only being maintained by, probably, credit and certainly the welfare state. The gap between the higher and middle and lower income groups are certainly widening. And, as you pointed, with other indicators suggesting the opposite, we need to find out why this is happening. A small indication is that wages in the food & drink manufacturing sector – our biggest indigenous industry – actually fell between March 2005 and September 2006 by nearly 3%. All boats are not being lifted and quite a lot are slowly sinking. Imagine what the impact on these figures will be during our current high inflation period, never mind a downturn in construction and consumer spending – which the NCC pointed out is inevitable.
    Referring to Niall’s points, first I want to make clear that I’m not suggesting there is no link between income and work. What I’m doubting is the extent to which it is true. There’s a lot of assertion but nothing of an empirical nature to confirm the point. The siutation is more complicated than just the – ‘if you have money you must be smarter and work harder school’. A link between talent and reward? I wish. That would, at least, be a start. But the more one delves into the complex and layered issues of ‘reward’ in a deeply unequal society, the more one appreciates that markets, work opportunities, income distribution, living standards, life-styles, education, economic hierarchies, access to services and social supports, even our idea of work (e.g. paid work and unpaid work) etc. are socially constructed. In Ireland’s case, badly constructed.
    For instance, as you are constantly pointing out, Niall (and rightfully so) much is related to an education system which reinforces inequality rather than undermine it. I’m not suggesting that if we get that right everything else is peaches and cream – there is no silver bullet on this issue but rather a multitutde – but there is no advance on inequality and social inequity without education being at the fore.
    I’ll try to get some of these in forthcoming posts – but there are so many its hard to know where to start. But now I have to return to my (paid) work for, as David refers to them, my paymasters – which happen to be thousands of hard-working people who contribute a small levy to ensure professional representation in the workplace (and wondering why all their hard work is only barely – if that – keeping them afloat).

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  6. Niall Avatar

    Can I suggest a slightly different view of the same issue? Joan Burton has raised the tax position of one income households a number of times recently. There is a summary of her position at the following reference.
    http://www.joanburton.ie/?postid=547
    Yesterday in the Dáil, Cowan admitted that much of the tax improvement for others had been at the expense of these one income households.

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  7. Lorenzo Avatar

    Well Michael I hope I am causing you to get up too early; sleep has value too (I tried to convince my 7 month old daughter of this, but she was having none of it). As an aside, I hope we are keeping each other on our respective toes – my instinctive positions are (obviously?) more to the right than yours but I hope I am open enough to allow myself to be convinced by good, evidence-based argument. It is one of the reasons why I avoid sites like politics.ie, there is way too much of either preaching to the converted or the debate of the deaf descending into virtual screaming matches. End of aside.
    To repeat my basic point: drawing conclusions about income movements over time for groups of people from these household figures is difficult and liable to error. I’m not saying yours are necessarily wrong, it’s just that – as you point out – equivalised income figures are the ones to use in drawing longitudinal conclusions.
    Which household income decile a person is in is to a large degree explained by how many people are in their household. The changing level of household income in a particular decile is not a good indication of general income movement as the actual individual members of each decile in one period will vary (possibly considerably) from those in another period. For example if two persons in 1st decile single occupant households move in together, suddenly that new household is in the third or fourth decile – without any change in either person’s income. Similarly, if a couple in a 10th decile household split up, the two new households will be in lower deciles.
    I think the best indicators that can be drawn from the CSO figures are disposible income per household member.
    Decile 2003 2005
    1 €95 €134
    2 €128 €138
    3 €137 €149
    4 €150 €153
    5 €173 €187
    6 €214 €220
    7 €231 €242
    8 €248 €280
    9 €308 €334
    10 €452 €540

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  8. Lorenzo Avatar

    Whoops, that should have been “I hope I am not causing you to get up too early”.

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Commentary on Irish Political Economy by Michael Taft, researcher for SIPTU