Notes on the Front

All manner of pressure is being put on the ‘smaller’ parties – Greens, Labour, Social Democrats – to sign up to a new Fianna Fail-Fine Gael government.  Some of the reasoning is specious, some naïve.  And some know exactly what is at stake; namely, a progressive government in the short term that excludes both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

One of the best descriptions of the current situation came from the Today with Sean O’Rourke programme:  the Fianna Fail-Fine Gael document is a colouring book and smaller parties are being invited to fill in the blank spaces. And that’s the problem: the smaller parties won’t own the book, write the story or even get to draw the picture.

One argument is that smaller parties should enter government to influence policy.  But how do we measure the potential to influence – either to implement good policies, or block bad ones?  Influence is intangible.  It is a political, not an empirical, measurement.  It is not a slide-rule.  That’s why it is so seductive – one doesn’t have to offer any proof of how much or how little.  (By the way, one can substitute the word ‘power’ for influence; you end up in the same space). 

If we use parliamentary seats as a measure of influence, then a smaller party’s influence will be minimal.  The six seats held by Labour and the Social Democrats each would barely fill a corner of a room where Fianna Fail and Fine Gael occupy 72 seats.  Even the Greens would struggle to find space with their 12 seats. 

Another variant of this ‘influence’ argument  is that if smaller parties reject participation in government, this just shows they are not interested in power; they are afraid of making ‘tough decisions’; they want to retreat into the ‘luxury of opposition’. 

Of course, parties should be afraid of making the wrong decisions, tough or otherwise.  However, the best response to the influence argument actually comes from the Fianna Fail-Fine Gael document itself:

‘We also recognise the need for a strong Opposition to hold the Government to account – one that can contribute, critique, challenge, and change policies.’

So even the larger parties acknowledge that a ‘strong’ opposition can influence policy.  Smaller parties can accept the invitation of the two larger parties – and actively participate in building a strong opposition that can ‘change’ policy and ‘contribute’ to policy.  This is not luxury.  This is hard work.

The most effective way to influence a government is to build an opposition capable of winning people over to an alternative set of ideas; one that is ready to replace the sitting government.  Government parties in situ will continually look over their shoulders, steal and borrow from the opposition, in an attempt to appease a public wanting change.  And for many commentators and politicians, this is the real fear.  Not only that a strong opposition will push the centre of political gravity to the Left; but that a strong opposition will eventually form the government.

This is the graph that unnerves conservative forces.  Over the last 40 years there has been a consistent pattern:  loss of support for the two conservative parties, rising support for progressive parties – so much so that in terms of the popular vote and seats they are now almost even. 

Imagine Pearse Doherty in Finance, Eoin O’Broin in Housing, Ged Nash in Enterprise and Employment Affairs, Roisin Shortall in Health, Nessa Hourigan in Environment, Brid Smith in Transport and, from the Independents, Thomas Pringle in Fisheries and Coastal Economies.  There’s always a danger in name-checking because you can’t list all of them – and a progressive government will have a depth and breadth of talent and abilities to draw on: Catherine Murphy, Louise O’Reilly, Catherine Martin, Cian O’Callaghan, Richard Boyd-Barret, Catherine Connolly, Roderic O’Gorman and – from future TDs – Marie Sherlock and Lynn Boylan.  Now put in the party leaders.  And all those I haven’t the space to list. 

This is a powerful and exciting cabinet that could lead a truly transformational government.  And what might have been a fantasy cabinet is now more than just a possibility.  This is what unnerves conservative forces.

]Note:  maybe someone out there in social media land could set up and launch a Progressive Cabinet Builder on-line where everyone could list their preferences in future Cabinet portfolios.  It would be fun, informative and eventually realised.]

In the past, small parties (usually Labour) didn’t have much choice.  Governments were led by either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.  Small parties participated as very junior partners in an attempt to make the best of a bad situation.  Now, progressive parties can make the best of a good situation.  That’s what unnerves conservative forces.

So what should a small party do? 

• Take up Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s invitation to help build a strong opposition in order to change and influence government policy

• Work with other progressive parties to build a future progressive government where their influence will be even stronger

• Develop innovative, progressive and popular policies that can challenge all of us to do better, think better

• Elect more TDs – we can’t get enough progressive TDs

• Help push the red line in the above graph ever higher and, so, push the blue even further down

It is likely, though not inevitable, that the next election will be in the short term – within 12 to 18 months.  A Fianna Fail-Fine Gael minority government could be a shaky construction.  The nature of the crisis (absolutely unforeseen back in February) will accentuate the need for alternatives.  The public demand for a new post-emergency government could become irresistible. 

Small progressive parties, like all progressive forces – throughout political and civil society – should start to realise a future that has been a long time coming; not be diverted by colouring books, and build a stronger party so as to make a progressive government a reality in a very short time.

History is beckoning.