Notes on the Front

The following is a synopsis of an article that appears on Irish Left Review.

When Eamon Gilmore, TD launched his leadership bid back in August he laid out his primary objective:

‘Labour should break free of, and reject, the "half party" limit which others impose on us – and which, sometimes, we inflict on ourselves.’

Full parties are those that can realistically lead a coalition government. In Ireland, consistent with political patterns in other European countries, there are two and only two full parties at any given time. Therefore, for Labour to become a full party, it must supplant one of the two larger parties.

The first electoral challenge in Labour’s quest to end its half-party status is the upcoming locals. The problem, however, is that Fine Gael is also sizing up the locals for a major breakthrough. They have a very real opportunity of becoming the largest party at local level – they trail FF by only a handful of local seats. If they are successful, this will further reinforce the ‘two full party’ system of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, leaving Labour continuing to flounder in its half party status.

However, Labour and the progressive parties can still turn the tables on the larger parties – by coming to a loose arrangement or a ‘progressive understanding’ upon which they can together fight the locals. For in 2004, the three progressive parties – Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens – combined took 23%, trailing Fine Gael by 4% and Fianna Fail by 8%. Not only that, this progressive bloc was the largest ‘grouping’ on the major urban councils, in both seats and votes.

The progressive parties can’t overtake the larger parties in terms of seats. Where they are weakest – Connaght, Ulster, etc. – is over-represented with more than five times the councillors per electors than in areas where they are strongest. However, if they fought the election on a 1st preference basis, they could pick up seats but more importantly, they could obtain more votes than Fine Gael and quite possible Fianna Fail. In 2004, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were declining in the popular vote, the progressives gained over 6\%.

Of course, there are problems bringing the three parties together in a ‘Common Cause’ – not least of which is that the Greens are in government. However, there are obvious benefits for all three parties. Most of all, they would belong to a grouping that could not only drive Fine Gael into third place, but quite possible challenge Fianna Fail for first. For Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens – and for progressives throughout Ireland – this could be for the formula whereby they end their historical half and quarter status and begin to challenge the larger parties in a way that has not been done before.

For a full analysis of these and related issues, please click on to Irish Left Review.

Irish Left Review is an online journal established by progressive bloggers to promote political cooperation between progressives from all traditions on this island with a view to helping the Left grow in order to challenge the stranglehold that the parties of the Right have over political society.